- Philippines faces domestic, global risks -cabinet ministers
- Government changes peso, inflation assumptions for 2024
- Peso to be broadly stable over midterm, cbank official says
MANILA — The Philippines has narrowed its economic growth target for 2024 to a range of 6.0% to 6.5%, down from a top end of 7% previously, and revised its outlook through 2028 amid domestic and external uncertainties, a government panel said on Monday.
“We are moving in a more uncertain world,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told a news conference, adding that global events could provide domestic headwinds while U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff agenda could impact the country in either direction.
Finance Secretary Ralph Recto on Monday told a briefing the Philippines could still “realistically” grow by 6.0% this year.
At the same time, the Philippines also widened its growth target for 2025-2028 to a range of 6.0% to 8.0%, from 6.5% to 7.5% for 2025 and 6.5% to 8.0% in 2026-2028 in the June meeting to reflect “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is due to finish his single, six-year term in 2028.
The Philippine economy grew 5.2% in the third quarter, its weakest in more than a year, as adverse weather disrupted government spending and dampened farm output. It brought year-to-date growth to 5.8%.
The Philippine peso is expected to average 57 to 57.50 per dollar for 2024, from an earlier assumption of 56 to 58, the interagency said.
The government changed its peso assumption to 56 to 58 per dollar for 2025 from 55 to 58, but maintained it at 55 to 58 for 2026 to 2028.
There is still a chance for the Philippine peso PHP=, which closed at 58.655 per dollar on Monday and touched an intraday record low more than a week ago, to be broadly stable over the medium term, central bank Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila told the same news conference.
The interagency panel revised its inflation assumption for 2024 to a range of 3.1% to 3.3%, from 3.0% to 4.0%, and maintained it at 2.0% to 4.0% for 2025 to 2028.
—Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales and Mikhail Flores; Editing by Martin Petty and Bernadette Baum
